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Gold trade risk calculator

See what a gold trade can lose, what it can make, and the win rate it needs to pay off.

Broker settings 1 lot = 100 oz · 1 pip = $0.10 · USD

Not sure? Open a 0.01-lot gold trade on demo: if a $1.00 move changes it by $1, you have 100 oz lots. Brokers that show gold to 2 decimals and call each $0.01 a point usually still count a pip as $0.10.

Risk to reward

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Loss if stopped—
Profit at target—
Break-even win rate—

Before spread, commission and swap.

Reading the result

Risk to reward compares the distance to the target with the distance to the stop. A trade risking 100 pips to make 200 is 1:2. The break-even win rate tells you how often trades like this must win for the strategy to break even: the lower it is, the more room you have to be wrong.

Worked example: one signal, three targets

VIP trade #10 on 16 October 2026: buy at 4181, stop at 4173.5 (75 pips of risk). Each target has its own risk to reward:

TargetPriceRewardRisk to rewardBreak-even win rate
TP1418650 pips1 : 0.6760.0%
TP24188.575 pips1 : 1.0050.0%
TP34191100 pips1 : 1.3342.9%

Closing everything at TP1 only pays if trades like this reach TP1 more than 60% of the time. Holding part of the position to TP3 lowers the bar, as long as the stop moves to entry once TP1 is hit.

Signals with several targets let you take part of the profit at the first target and move the stop to entry, which changes the maths in your favour: see taking partial profits.

Questions

What is a good risk to reward ratio for gold?

Many traders look for at least 1:1.5 or 1:2, meaning the target is 1.5 to 2 times further away than the stop. A higher ratio lets you be wrong more often and still come out ahead; it isn't a guarantee of profit.

How does win rate relate to risk to reward?

The break-even win rate is 1 ÷ (1 + reward/risk). At 1:1 you need to win more than 50% of trades; at 1:2, more than 33%. The calculator shows this for your trade.

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